APF Gathering 2010: Foresight and the Power of Big Questions, 6

Landcare Research | Manaaki Whenua (to take care of the land) [summation of a paper just submitted to Futures]:  only just now got to integral futures and causal layered analysis, so it’s not passe in New Zealand just yet.

Kanohi ki te kanohi:  face to face dialogue — very important part of how you do business in Maori, can take as long as it takes.

Global context:  terribly dystopian; we’re completely and terribly screwed; usual list of wicked problems (climate change; demographics; displacement; urbanisation; oil shock; BRIIC); we’re hitting system limits and it doesn’t look good.  A fascination to all of us who don’t live in the US is the US role in all of this.

Intensification: of farming; of how we use resources; water and embedded water — will change patterns of food use and eating; agricultural practices.

Futures literacy:  can we learn to be sustainable?

New Zealand:  what are its big issues?  very strong sense of post-colonial identity.  Following Jo’burg conference, created a Sustainable Development Programme of Action — it has since been replaced by a very retro government that says the only issue of importance is growth, and the only time scale the next quarter.  Brings us back to concept of national identity — we’re still holding on to the ‘brand’ identity of ‘100% pure New Zealand’ – very dangerous to hold onto, as a lot of dirty things happening under the surface.  Keeping New Zealand new:  windmill farms; project called ‘Carbon Zero’ enabling any company anywhere in the world to be carbon neutral.  68% of New Zealand’s energy is sustainable / carbon neutral — and dropping, because of increased demand for energy.

Agricultural production is up 38%; area of farmland down 3%.  40 million sheep (4 million people), and a lot of cattle, all of which emit a lot of methane, resulting in a rather unique carbon footprint.  We’re thinking of using nanotech to adjust composition of soil to grow alfalfa that results in less methane in cattle belches.  Connection between citizenship and the state is shifting — whose voices are heard, whose are marginalised, whose are silenced?  Every visitor arrives by air; bulk of it from San Francisco and LA — if world gets serious about reducing climate change and carbon footprints, big problem.  Also, big impact on our exports:  as Europe moves towards carbon neutral products, air freighted products from Southern summer to Northern winter will have a much higher carbon load.  What happens to the pricing of externalities on either tourist travel or shipping commodities.

Export issues:  exported food vs local food — not just carbon footprint but also strategic fuel reserve issues.  Some interesting projects to offset both the reality and the impression, eg CarboN Zero Sauvignon Blanc.

Five phases of NZ futuring:

• strong seed, barren ground – big movement in 70s from top down;
• native bush – lean period in 80s reduced mostly to scanning and scenarios;
• gleaning;
• a more dynamic ecosystem;
• new shoots

More recently, much more involved in social media to track real-world data for the environment.  Thinking of creating a project called “Wonderful New Zealand” that reinscribes the sense of wonder in the land and the country.

Future makers | Hikoi whakamua

Stock take of 106 futures reports over 10 years: findings reviewed by national ‘voices’ — mostly rubbish, bad scanning and scenarios put together by people that knew nothing about foresight and futures studies.

What are the wicked problems, and what do they mean?

Mainland dust-up — naturally arid zones; water pollution; forestry failing; etc.  How do we enable mental shifts to privilege the future over the present — as we will need to do to address problems as wicked as climate change:  they require massive institutional change.  They also require messy processes, with few quick wins.  Generates unresponsive monologues, or shouting matches among the deaf, when what we need is the sweet spot of deliberative participative process where each voice states its case persuasively.

What could solution strategies look like?  what works for wicked problems?  three possible directions — 1) authoritative, eg legislation, regulation, resource consent, land purchase; does it work? no, not on its own.  2) competitive — market will solve all the problems via joint ventures, market access, etc. doesn’t work either.  3) participative, eg community schemes, management groups, etc — doesn’t work either.  What DOES work?  Al we can do is throw mud at the wall, and hope some of it sticks (actually quote from NZ civil servant).  Need all three combined:  hierarchical, competitive, participatory in synergy.

Model:  partnerships; futures literacy; boundary organizations; translating; leadership; myth management.

What does all this mean?  current interventions are weak; no sign yet of a paradigm shift, but we badly need one.

Peter:  may have a small number of futurists, but per capita seem to have more futuring going on there than here. Bob:  may be that myth of newness, so perhaps more a sense of an open future, of a young country.  Peter:  at bottom of your chart, said shift is now toward more growth, what produced that?  Bob:  response to recession, and desire to beat Australia.  Joel:  what about the demographics — young, middle, aging?  Bob:  will be aging in the next twenty years, but also browning and going Asian.  Joe:  what about future myths — have you developed any of those?  Bob:  post-modernist — XXX?  Foucault, and Barthes, and notions of spectacle and ritual and myth — we have myths, conditions, and assumptions that gradually morph over time, and perhaps we can accelerate them — we have developed a greater openness as a culture to some ideas.  Ken:  do you still accept the Queen as the sovereign?  has it created a political controversy in NZ?  Bob:  she’s still on the coin — people don’t show up as much now when the royals visit — more talk about republicanism, but let Australia do the dirty work first.

Christian:  does Maori culture have touchpoints re: thinking about the future, what myths does it tell about itself and the future?  Bob:  good question — Maori dom is fixed, fluid, and forced; secondly, the treaty between Britain and the Maori tribes signed in 1842 — two translations, of which the English was written out in full, and the Maori version, which was quite short.  As a result most Maori tribes have taken the Crown to tribunal and gotten settlements:  which they are investing, buying the best of lawyers and accountants and investment advisers.  Most Iwi produce strategic plans, often for thousand year futures.  Their concept of time is long-term and deeply embedded. Under the current governmental arrangements, the Maori hold the balance of power: minority governments, coalition-building, people vote very tactically.

Peter:  what is futures literacy (Riel Miller’s definition)?  Bob:  where thinking about the future is a core competence in tier two, and then part of action in tier 3.  Marsha: please go back to the slide with all the solution sets…[at this point, gentle reader, I suggest you wait for Bob’s article in Futures, because my fingers are tired and I’m signing off…]