Common Weaknesses in Applying Qualitative Futures Methods


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Table of Contents

Common Weaknesses in Applying Qualitative Futures Methods

Presentation Overview

Positivists vs. Futurists: design differences

Positivists vs. Futurists: researchers’ roles

Alternative possible futures...

…alternative possible futures

Alternative futures: possible, probable, and preferable

PPT Slide

Strategic Planning and Foresight

Categories of data required by common foresight tools...

The context of applied futures research

Identifying change...

Environmental Scanning

Trends, emerging issues… and wild cards.

Environmental Scanning: a basic approach….

Environmental Scanning: a more advanced structure…

Common futures research tools… identifying/monitoring change.

…looking for impacts

Emerging issues of change…

…emerging issues of change, cont’d.

Futures Wheels: Workshop Instructions

PPT Slide

Common futures research tools… critiquing impacts of change.

Existing images of alternative futures: sources

Scenarios: imagining difference through structured processes.

Effective scenarios… provoke ideas!

Basic Scenario Building: FAR/Futures Table

Basic Scenario Building: SRI Scenario Parameter Matrix

Basic Scenario Building: Schwartz/GBN Approach

Basic Scenario Building: Schwartz/GBN Approach, cont’d.

Schwartz/GBN Example: Scenario Matrix for ”Global Agro-Seeds, Inc.”

Basic scenario building, Manoa Approach:

Manoa Approach Example: Three trends for 2030

Manoa Approach Example: Three trends for 2030

Common futures research tools… scenario building.

Strategic Design Trade-offs: Scenario Building as an Example

Effective visions….inspire action!

Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, Organizational Capacity for Vision Creation

Common futures research tools… visioning.

Strategic Design Trade-offs: Visioning as an Example

Common Research Flaws

Common Research Flaws, cont’d.

Author: Wendy L. Schultz


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Keywords: futures studies, environmental scanning, scenario building, visioning, foresight, change management