Common futures research tools… scenario building.
Morphological analysis/FAR: linking logically consistent outcomes across parameters.
- Limits unlikelihood, wild card thinking.
SRI Scenario Parameter Matrix: uses four ’plots’ to vary outcomes across parameters.
- Mimics ’default’ images; confuses scenarios with vision.
GBN/Shell approach: uses continua based on two uncertain trends to create four scenarios.
- Limits uncertainties considered; polarizes; creates related scenarios.
Manoa approach: uses impacts and cross-impacts from three trends for each scenario.
- Lacks structural rigor, consistency checks.