[These notes are courtesy
of Stuart Forsyth, who brought his computer to class during Spring
2001; our thanks.]
Methods II is the qualitative methods
class; Methods I is the quantitative class
The big picture:
- First third = creativity
- Creativity can
- Flash of Brilliance
by William C. Miller
- Group creative
processes enabled and enhanced by facilitation tools.
- Middle third = scenarios
- Development and
identification of scenarios
- Scenario Planning:
Managing for the Future by Gill Ringland
- Success in
Sight: Visioning by Andrew Kakabadse, Frederic Nortier
and Nello-Bernard Abramovici
- Last third = strategic
planning and change management
Strategic Planning by Robert W. Bradford, J. Peter Duncan,
Peter Duncan, Brian Tarcy,
which is required for Facilitating Planning and Foresight,
is recommended for this course segment.
- Four specific assignments:
3 "found" scenarios:
Cf. FuturesResearch Quarterly
Intro reading packet
Scenario found on-line
A science fiction movie
- Write 3 scenarios:
Demonstrate 3 different tools and 3 different ways of expressing
images of the future
It would be great if one could be expressed graphically
Could use PowerPoint graphics clips
Could do a collage
Explore how much you can graphically express things
- Vision analysis/proposal:
Look at vision statements
Look at one in light of the vision process, critique it, and
describe a visioning process
that you think would create a better vision statement for
- Strategic planning/implementation
Pick an "imaginary" client
Create a foresight based strategic planning process tailored
for their circumstances, as you understand them.
- We will do
exercises on these in class first!
There are more methods than can be covered in any semester course
This course assumes that you have taken the Intro to Futures course
and experienced, if only briefly, the following:
- Futures wheels
This course asks you
to master the qualitative techniques:
3 to 5 approaches in each category;
we will set up a critical structure by which we can compare the
You need to understand how different tools are applicable under
Trying to help you create
your own toolbox:
Methods I (quantitative) is about gathering data
Methods II (qualitative) is about what can create future change
We explore creativity:
How can you enhance your own creativity? Group creativity?
Will include a survival guide to group facilitation
The preceding is a build-up
to looking at scenarios of plausible futures
The module on scenario identification and analysis goes with your
Creativity is easier when you have a library of examples.
Scenario creation will
feature 6 to 7 approaches to building scenarios;
will focus on some of the more participatory approaches.
Visions and Visioning
will review 6 to 7 different techniques for group visioning;
these will range from very meditative to simple query-based dialogues
about values and goals.
Strategic Planning looks
at different models of strategic planning;
will take a modular approach.
There will be handout
readings in addition to the three textbooks
Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future by Gill Ringland
Wendy has many project papers from the examples in this book
There is no final exam.
Environmental scanning is not part of this class -- although it
should be an ongoing part of your life!
The idea is to play.
Think about these assignments in the context of clients you would
like to have
The goal is to make you comfortable with all of these tools
Therefore, you must actually do them!
Read Miller, Flash of Brilliance, pp. 1-97;
"Habit and Originality" from The Act of Creation by Arthur
(For further (voluntary) reading by Arthur Koestler, see also:
The Sleepwalkers and The Ghost and the Machine);
"From Learning to Creative Thinking" from The Quark and
the Jaguar by Murray Gell-Mann
(did much work in particle physics in the 2nd half of the 20th Century).
do you think creativity is?
What are all the forms it takes?
What are all the works we associate with creativity?
How does it get expressed and realized in the world?
What constrains or blocks creativity?