FUTR 5131: INTRO to STUDIES of the FUTURE:
Acquiring Futures Fluency

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WORKSHOP
"incasting"

This exercise uses a foresight technique called INCASTING: thinking up the specific details of a possible future based on a more general scenario description. Incasting begins with an array of possible futures: several different scenarios, all based on observed trends and emerging issues in society, the economy, technological innovation, the environment, and political activity. Descriptions of five different POSSIBLE futures have been distributed [note: these scenarios are EXTREMES -- cartoon sketches to help you stretch your imagination].

You and your working group have been assigned ONE of those five scenarios. IN USING SCENARIOS FOR THIS EXERCISE, IT IS IMPORTANT THAT YOU SUSPEND YOUR DISBELIEF. DO NOT ASK HOW THIS FUTURE CAME TO EXIST; DO NOT QUESTION ITS FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTIONS: YOU HAVE AWAKENED TO FIND YOURSELF LIVING IN IT. WHAT IS YOUR LIFE LIKE?

Given the characteristics of this scenario, and complying with the rule of logical consistency, what would the following be like in this future:

• commuting to work
• health care
• leisure activities [what do people do for fun?]
• education [what skills or substantive knowledge?]
• crimes [I.e., what would be a crime in this future?]

Report your findings as a series of headlines in the news media appropriate to this future [and tell us how news gets disseminated...]

The transformative powers of technological innovation characterize the "High Tech" scenario. Human inventiveness triumphed, and advances in energy production, such as cheap fusion power, have given the world clean, abundant supplies of energy. Advances in microprocessing, such as robotics, artificial intelligence, and nanotechnologies, have given humanity very precise, automated control over all our environments. Advances in genetic engineering and the biological sciences have given us very precise control over our bodies, and our definitions of who and what we are. Advances in telecommunications, such as high-definition, multi-sense holography and virtual reality, let us create versions of our inner visions and fantasies so real many people have ceased to interact with "real" social reality. International data and telecommunications networks have expanded so that everyone may now freely share information and opinions: regional and global direct democracies have become the most common forms of governance. As for the environment, respect for the environment is just part of rational environmental management -- which is handled mostly by the artificial intelligences anyway.

Headlines:

Metro Section:
Noise cancelation glitch with 800mph maglev commuter train -- 20 acres of forest leveled
Global T&T conducts record teleconference with 15000 employees -- announces new round of lay-offs
Health Care:
CDC reports global pandemic of cabin fever -- expert advice "open your door"
Psych diagnoses finally exceed physical ills
Leisure:
East Timor team takes gold in Olympic's Retrovirus Cure event
Two real hikers lost outside in Clear Lake
--virtual Park Rangers stymied
--real alligators suspected
Education:
20000 Global U students accidentally learn Hebrew --Comp Sleep education glitch disrupts virt student exchange with Palestine Global Virt High School team conducts controlled Global Cooling experiment
--Lowers temps in area by 2 degrees Celsius
Crime:
AI Court throws electronic book at Virt murderer
Rogue AI bank controller redistributes global wealth--Haiti rolls in E-cash

The "green" scenario is also sometimes called a "conserver society." The undeniable environmental changes witnessed around the globe in the 90's shifted values everywhere away from materialism, and toward an intense respect for the environment. This respect translated into the use of appropriate technologies and energy sources, development of ecologically friendly technologies, and the resurrection of some traditional modes of relating respectfully to nature. Dependence on environment means that some communities punish the misuse of resources. More and more human communities scaled down from metropolises to towns. Every person has a role in caring for the environment. Lifestyles are simpler. Population is controlled. Efforts to conserve and protect ecosystems lead to increased inter-island and intra- and inter-habitat cooperation. Socialization stresses self-sufficiency, re-use of material goods, and nurturing the biosphere. In some cases, environmental restoration is institutionalized and extinct species are bio-recreated.

Headlines:

Metro:
Solar vehicles power 90% of all commuter traffic
Work-a-thon down to 25%
Health Care:
Natural drugs take 90% of the market
Woman turns 250 years old, sets record
Leisure:
VR yields to multi-presencing
Congress approves 5 day weekend
Education:
Animal language classes now offered
Brain programming now possible
Crime:
Man gets 15 years for pulling weeds
Felons serve time restoring forests

"Continued Growth" describes a future in which the global economic system becomes more and more efficient and effective at mass production, distribution, and marketing: the extreme outgrowth of the global mass media/consumption trends. The late '80's and '90's saw increasing privatization of government services, in an attempt to cut back on government spending and the federal deficit. The Fortune 500 added so many employee amenities to their benefits packages that corporate citizenship became more important than country of origin. The result was the growth of corporate nation-states, and global market integration and homogenization. Technological innovations went swiftly from lab to production line to market, and global market saturation time for new consumer products has dropped to less than one year. The rich and the poor have better access to more goods, and the elite are now those who command the corporations' executive privileges. Environmental preservation occurs only insofar as it maintains comparative economic advantage. Small areas like Samoa are a source of cheap labor; nature reserves are used for economic purposes, including intensive aquaculture, food factories, tourism and retirement. The landless immigrate to urban areas. It is assumed that technology will solve any problems that emerge.

Headlines:

Metro:
Late Workers! Reverse polarity causes commuter maglev pods to crash
Health care:
Clone starts first day of work
Mandatory gene mapping makes hospotals empty and obsolete
Leisure:
BASE jumper fired! Parachutist lands on corpocrat's lawn
Telepathic Mindwars game blows up building
Education:
New Calculus Learning Virus on sale now
-- Get the beta version for only 12 manhours
Crime:
Technoterrorist invades MOTHER facility
-- alters incubating DNA and clones Ralph Nader
Top Scientist defects to MicroSoft -- 12 wounded in the fighting
Business:
Rival acquires rights to Yosemite stripmines

In the "Disciplined Society," worldwide trends in political extremism, nationalism, ethnocentrism, and religious fundamentalism escalated and in countries all over the world, conservative nationalists seized power. Non-nationals and other "socially unacceptable" groups were expelled, exterminated, and oppressed. Societies became more conservative, more focussed on traditional mores and modes of life, yet technology was retained for its productive advantages. Social roles, however, became much more constrained, with only a very narrow range of behaviors, beliefs, and political ideologies considered acceptable in communities where ethnofundamentalists hold power. Economic, political, social, and other activities and systems are centralized. Some islands are banana republics (of the U.S., Japan, etc.); others are isolationist. Art and expressive communication are cramped and censored to support political and philosophical regimes. Control of production became concentrated in the hands of a few charismatic leaders who hobble economic action with politicial rules. This scenario's societies are not poor, as are those in the collapse scenario, but neither are they as respectful of the environment as those communities in the conserver society.

Headlines:

Metro:
Electronic Mass Transit purchased by company
-- 6 million workers on-time on-line
Health care:
Accepted, registered nationals receive free healthcare
Leisure:
Local gospel group goes global
Annual community picnic rained out in spite of prayers
Education:
Bible class increases to 3 hours per day at parents request
Technology specialization school opens for grades 9-12
Crime:
Rev. Walton found carousing with woman under the influence
Defendant found guilty of teaching Spanish to offspring -- expelled from country
Defendant found guilty of fraternizing with alien -- stripped of "A" status
Vaporization down to 12 per month
Telepathy banned -- likened to witchcraft 

"Decline and Collapse" describes a future of global breakdown: a worldwide depression in the late 1990's caused the collapse of the international economic system. This collapse was made worse by terrorism, wars, and environmental problems. Technological systems and communications links broke down; international production and distribution of goods collapsed, as did the internal distribution of goods in many countries. Social structures frayed and disintegrated; life in general became more primitive. Countries became isolated from each other, and communities became isolated within countries. This scenario sees the return of city-states, clan systems, roving bands of refugee nomads on both land and sea. Culture is redefined for the purposes of survival.

Headlines:

Metro:
New cut road to river opens
Health care:
Community leaders urge people to drain areas of standing water to stop malaria epidemic
Cholera victims moved to new quarantine area
Leisure:
First community fair features crafts, livestock, and produce
Education:
Come to the Public hall for training in reforming waste plastics to suit your needs
Crimes:
3 people convicted of wasting fresh water, awaiting sentencing