9 FEBRUARY 2003 /
NOTE: THIS COURSE DESIGN IS UNDERGOING REVISION; this description,
on which the revised course will be based, is provided for your
information while adjustments are made to readings and assignments.
Check back on 16 February 2003.
Intensive Session 2003
Monday - Thursday, 1:15 pm - 5:00 pm
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Course Description | Assignments:
Personal Essay | Future
Generations | Scanning | Foresight
Foresight Framework Report: Issue or Country
Issue, Interest Area...
an area of substantive interest, e.g., health delivery or education
or financial trading or telephone/communications infrastructure,
or the lumber trade, or global computer industry. This interest
area may be an issue, such as human rights, or an economic sector,
such as transport manufacturing, or a basic need, such as health
a country to profile. First, collect basic data on your country
-- descriptive statistics about its recent past and current
condition -- such as information on land area, population, arable
land, water, and natural resources; imports, exports, and major
trading partners; interactions in international relations and
human rights record.
whatever data you can describing the past growth and current
state of this interest area worldwide; make this information
as clear to the uninformed reader as you can, as well as concise,
by the use of tables, graphs, charts, and maps. This introduction
to the area of interest should take about five pages, almost
all of which may be tables, graphs and charts, as long as you
include at least three paragraphs explaining why this issue
is important to you and should be of interest to others.
whatever combination of tables, charts, graphs, and narrative
you think most efficiently conveys the data about the current
state of your country, take three to five pages to introduce
your country to the reader. This should include at least three
paragraphs on its origins, offering both the ancient roots of
its peoples and the modern circumstances that created it as
a present-day nation-state. This three-to-five page profile
should also identify the different ethnic and religious groups
that comprise the population, the distribution of that population
across the land, the major economic activities, the form of
government and the country's primary allies and trading partners,
and key characteristics of the environment and environmental
identify what emerging issues you think will affect this interest
area most strongly in the next twenty years, and describe what
you think the potential impacts might include. This should take
about two to three pages. Then look for scenarios of possible
futures for this issue, particularly any scenarios that may
be linked to the emerging issues you have identified. If you
can not find any scenarios, draft three one-page alternative
futures for this issue, based on different combinations and
outcomes of the emerging issues you have identified.
Next, in two to
three pages, discuss what you have found about the major issues
facing your country -- what, if any, are ITS "critical emerging
issues"? Describe any scenarios or forecasts you have been
able to find describing possible futures for your country.
If you have not found any scenarios specific to your country,
draft three one-page alternative futures for your country,
based on different combinations and outcomes of the emerging
issues you have identified as critical for your country.
explore what possible "best case" outcomes might be for this
interest area -- what is a preferred future, a vision, for the
best that it can be? Can you find any examples offered by other
analysts or researchers of a positive vision for this issue?
How might some of the development strategies or solutions discussed
in the final section of class affect this issue area? Which
seem most suitable to addressing problems related to this issue?
explore what possible preferred visions for your country might
be: what would be a "best case" scenario? Have any analysts,
researchers, or decision-makers in the country offered a positive
vision for its future? Of the various development or transition
strategies discussed in the final section of the class, which
seem most suitable for your country's unique circumstances?
Which, if any, have advocates in the leadership or among the
people of your country? What do the "best case" visions for
the future of the world imply for your country?